All the forecasts for the previous week emanated as failed setups earlier before the end of the trading week. EURUSD did actually retest the down trendline as new support perfectly but it couldn’t hold above it. EURJPY and CADJPY as well broke above the marked resistance levels but they all ended up as bull traps. GBPJPY however lacked the momentum to make any additional bullish moves. As another week has chanced upon us, I look forward to the setups as ones that would be legit.
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On a very rare occurrence, all the setups for this week are market structures taken from the weekly timeframe. I have been tracking all of the pairs for close to 6 months to reach their weekly levels before I could give an update on them.
The charts in focus for this week are XAUUSD, USDCHF and USDCAD.
Gold has been moving accordingly to the technical price action structures so far this year and it printed out a massive signal before the week ended. Since October 2016, the prices of this commodity has been converging in major phases of up moves and down moves. This has brought about a basic chart pattern which can be viewed more as an ascending triangle. The resistance of the triangle is not perfectly horizontal as it slants a bit.
The just ended week printed out a spinning top at triangle resistance which signifies two things; a lack of bias on either side or an exhaustion for the bulls when you take a look at Friday’s candlestick. I’d be up for an opportunity either way but the daily timeframe gives an upper hand to the bears.
The last time I posted on USDCHF I was a bear; it has met with my expectation so far but the recent week’s movement has called for re-analyzing. The pattern which is an ascending triangle has held for a year and some months now. It broke below the triangle support two weeks ago but it is currently looking like a false break now. Price has closed back above the support. I would be carefully tracking this pair in comparison to XAUUSD for correlation opportunities.
I cannot count the number of times I have been waiting for this pair to break the long term ascending channel so I can go heavily short. However, “a trend is more likely to continue than break” is very applicable in this instance. USDDCAD has been in an uptrend for two years and there still seems to be no shortage of momentum for the bulls.
The final weekly candlestick is a full bull and it is indicating that the bears are still out of the game. I am bullish this pair until the ascending triangle support is massacred. It is worthy to note that, there is previous super choppy price action in the way of the bulls so I will be cautious on this one.
I wish you a profitable trading week.